This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card in Russia. DraftKings has some strong competitions for us to win a lot of money from this week considering it’s a smaller card and starts at 10:15am ET. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of 100k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first place price and $175k will be spread out between all 100 admissions that qualify. I will try to get my 2nd and 3rd chairs this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers so be cautious chasing those overly hard. I will likely stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw 100 or so entries at the $25k decoration, then I will likely take a few shots in the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a great quantity of play into cash games.
With that said, let us get into a couple plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Roxanne Modafferi — $6,900
I don’t believe there are any money locks nowadays, so I wanted to bring up a cash plan I use a lot of the moment, which is punting in cash and accepting a loss. I really don’t think Roxy gets the win here, but she’s only $6.9k and that I think she gets 15-minutes of actions. I like the flooring that comes with that and punting along with her cheap price enables us to fit in a lot of those favorites that are higher with our other 5 spots. We don’t want 6 wins in money games, so I do not believe we will need to even try for it. I enjoy playing money games if I can lock 25-35 points at a reduction from Roxy at her cheap price I’m totally ok with that. I look for 4 wins in money and over 350-400 DK points. That’s my goal weekly. Let everyone else make the mistakes and just shoot for a score which may conquer 50% or more of this field.
GPP play of the week — Alistair Overeem — $8,900
This really is an all-in struggle for GPPs in my opinion and I enjoy Overeem among my top plays of the week. Oleinik took this fight on short notice so I would be shocked to see this go all 5 rounds. I also believe Overeem will be too quick for him to get takedowns, and Overeem is amounts before him at the game that is spectacular. The sole shooter Oleinik has of winning on the toes would be by landing a haymaker and knocking Overeem out. Or, get a standing submission. Besides those two results, Overeem will smoke him on the toes. In addition, I think Overeem can work his way back into his toes if he is removed and the more Oleinik shoots for takedowns the faster he will gas out. I enjoy the -175 ITD line that comes with Overeem here and I think he gets a complete in round 2 or 1. That should provide us near 100 DK points or even more, and I want that in a lot of my own GPP lineups.
Underdog drama of this week — Rafael Fiziev — $7,700
Fiziev is no more the underdog on the betting line (-120) but DraftKings salaries don’t change once they’re released. We get Fiziev here for $800 less costly than Mustafaev and he is preferred to get the win. I was very impressed with what I saw from this kid and that I concur with all the line motion. I do think he has the win here, but it’s the DK value that we would like to be sure to get exposure to the weekend. I believe he’s an excellent play in cash games with the present value and I expect to be overweight on him GPPs too. We have to roster underdogs in our lineups and if we can use a favorite as among those”underdogs” I am usually on board for that.
Fade of this week — Antonina Shevchenko ($9,300)
Antonina Shevchenko is my fade of the week for her $9.3k price label. I really do think she gets the win here since I mentioned earlier, I simply don’t see how she can pay off that wages with no finish. I really don’t see her shooting for any takedowns in this match, and I do not wish to rely on her obtaining knockdown points . So, we are only likely to be getting 0.5 points per significant strike, and then the 30-point win bonus when she wins a decision. If this is true, we would want her to property over 126 sig strikes just to secure more than 10x worth. I don’t see that being the case and that I think she likely scores 80-85 DK points in a decision triumph. At her wages, that will not win anyone the big $25k. That’s the prize I’m shooting for so that is why she’s my fade of the week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link too. I’m 69-41 to get +237.39un (+$23,739) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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