This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Russia. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win a great deal of cash from this week considering it’s a more compact card and begins at 10:15am ET. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first location cost and $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 entries that match. I will attempt to receive my 2nd and 3rd seats this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and then toss 100 or so entries at the $25k prize, then I will probably have a few shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
With that said, let us get into a few plays I like this week Together with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Roxanne Modafferi — $6,900
I really don’t believe there are any money locks this week, so I wanted to bring up a money strategy I use a lot of the moment, which can be punting in money and accepting a reduction. I really don’t believe Roxy gets the win here, but she is only $6.9k and I believe she gets 15-minutes of actions. I like the floor which comes with that and punting with her cheap cost allows us to fit in more of the favorites that are higher with our other five spots. We do not need 6 wins in money games, so I don’t think we will need to try for this. I enjoy playing money games safer and if I can lock 25-35 points at a reduction from Roxy in her cheap price I’m totally ok with that. I always look for 4 wins in money and above 350-400 DK points. That’s my goal every week. Let everyone else make the mistakes and just shoot for a score that may beat 50 percent or more of the area.
GPP play of this week — Alistair Overeem — $8,900
This really is an all-in fight for GPPs in my view and I like Overeem as one of my best plays of the week. Oleinik took this fight on short notice so that I would be amazed to see this go all 5 rounds. In addition, I believe Overeem will be too quick for him to get takedowns, and Overeem is amounts ahead of him in the game that is spectacular. The sole shooter Oleinik has of winning on the feet would be by landing a haymaker and knocking Overeem out. Or, get a standing submission. Other than those two outcomes, Overeem will smoke on the toes. In addition, I think Overeem will work his way back to his toes if he’s removed and the more Oleinik shoots takedowns the quicker he will gas out. I enjoy the -175 ITD lineup that comes with Overeem here and I think he gets a finish in around 1 or 2. That should give us close to 100 DK points if not more, and I need that in lots of my own GPP lineups.
Underdog drama of the week — Rafael Fiziev — $7,700
Fiziev is no longer the underdog on the betting line (-120) but DraftKings salaries do not change once they are released. We get Fiziev here for $800 cheaper than Mustafaev and he’s favored to get the win. I was very impressed by what I saw from this child and that I concur with the line movement. I really do think he has the win here, but it’s the DK worth that we would like to be sure to find exposure to this weekend. I believe he is a great play cash games with the present value and I hope to be overweight on him in GPPs too. We have to roster underdogs in our lineups and if we could use a favorite as among these”underdogs” then I am usually on board for it.
Fade of this week — Antonina Shevchenko ($9,300)
Antonina Shevchenko is my fade of this week because of her $9.3k price label. I do think she gets the win here since I said previously, I simply don’t see the way she can pay off that salary without a finish. I really don’t see her shooting for any takedowns in this game, and I don’t want to rely on her obtaining knockdown points either. Thus, we’re only likely to be getting 0.5 points each significant attack, and then the 30-point win bonus if she wins a decision. If that is true, we would want her to land over 126 sig strikes just to get more than 10x value. I don’t see that being true and that I believe she more likely scores 80-85 DK points at a decision triumph. At her salary, that won’t win anybody the large $25k. That is the prize I am shooting for so that’s why she is my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight about the card and give my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link as well. I’m 69-41 for +237.39u (+$23,739) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
Read more: https://www.woodexperience.be/2019/10/17/about-ufc-consensus/
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