This weekend we have a 13-fight card then extended 3-week break. I am excited to have UFC back and that I am ready to win some cash on Saturday. The card will occur in Lincoln, Nebraska and there are no fighters creating their UFC debut so it’s always nice when you are already acquainted with all the fighters on the card. Because this is a Fight Night card, the DraftKings contests are not the greatest, but there’s still a lot of money to be won. I’ll personally be chasing the big $15k top prize at the $8 GPP in addition to the $5 & $10 Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in cash games, mainly H2Hs, but I will be taking numerous shots at those big prizes. Listed below are a few plays I like this week in Addition to my fade of this week:
Money Game play of this week — Stack (James Vick $8,600 AND Justin Gaethje $7,600)
This is the way I will be starting my money lineup. I can put in Vick and Gaethje then figure the rest out from there. Any fight Gaethje is in is full of activity and his three UFC fights have all been Fight Of The Year type fights. Those types of fights are fantastic for DraftKings. Especially cash games because we can lock at a win and receive all the points at the very best battle on the card. Normally 4 wins will find the business done in cash games and we will get over 100 points on this battle. So, with that win locked in, we just need to find 3 others we feel great about.
GPP play of the week — Bryan Barberena ($9,500)
It is tough to want to pay $9.5k for a man like Barberena if you can just pay an additional $200 to find a -1000 favorite in Anders. But, I think that’s what most people will do and that’s what makes Barberena a good GPP play. I believe we’ll get him at a marginally lower possession as a consequence of his massive salary, and he has a very good chance at getting a 1st round win. If he can get a 1st round KO afterward he will have at least 100 points so he will pay off that high salary. If you think Ellenberger is completely faded, then I believe that you should get some Barberena on your lineups. His ITD line is -170 and Ellenberger resembles he’s a shell of his older self. I believe Barberena does pick up an end in this fight so I will throw him in some GPPs and expect he is under possessed.
Underdog play of the week — Andre Fili ($7,500)
This is just the easy value play of this week. Presently, Fili is the gambling favorite at -115 over Michael Johnson in +105. However, MJ is $8.7k on DraftKings and Fili is just $7.5k. I love taking that value when it’s available so that I presume he is in play in all formats. He’ll be popular in tournaments together with all the value we are getting on him, but I am willing to consume that chalk and I don’t want to get burned by entirely fading that value. I really do think this is the toughest struggle on the card to phone, but when Fili keeps using his wrestling I presume he will have a fantastic shot at winning this fight. If the fight stays standing for 15-minutes, I would prefer MJ but not by a good deal. At $7.5k we do not need a massive score from Fili so any win will probably do just fine. I am not going to pass on this respect and I think he’s the simple underdog of the week on DK.
Fade of this week — Drew Dober ($8,900)
This may just be my personal prejudice but I am not going to possess Drew Dober in some of my main ~20 GPP lineups. Nor will I have him in my cash lineup. Dober has only went for takedowns in 1 of his UFC fights so he’s mainly just seeking to attack. I believe this is going to be a remarkable battle also and I think that it’s going to be closer than the chances indicate. At $8.9k I believe we’ll require a complete from him to end up on the winning GPP lineup and that I don’t see that occurring. If you do think Dober can get a KO, then you should be enjoying him. I’ll only be paying up elsewhere since I am not sure he could get that complete and I wouldn’t be amazed if he lost the fight. I will say I never look to use Dober at DraftKings, therefore I could get burned again here but I will stick with my Dober fade and he’ll be my fade of the week to get UFC Lincoln.
If you’d like my full-card DraftKings breakdown using investigation on every fight, my private approaches & recommendations, and also my selection outlook for every fight then you can discover that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
Read more here: https://www.woodexperience.be/2019/10/14/ufc-222-las-vegas-odds/